2015 Dynasty / Keeper Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfield (Part 2) 2/10/15 (Longer Article/Rankings)

This is part 2 of my dynasty rankings for fantasy baseball. We looked at part 1 last week, and before that we analyzed dynasty rankings at Third Base, Catcher, Shortstop, First Base, and Second Base. 

These rankings are for a fresh dynasty draft where you are primarily drafting to win but also strongly considering the future upside and downside of all these outfielders. There’s a decent drop off after the top 30 outfielders, but there are still some diamonds in the rough. Let’s try to find them.
 

Tier 7 – Dynasty / Keeper Outfield Rankings

31) Rusney Castillo, 27, BOS

32) Kole Calhoun, 27, LAA

33) Joc Pederson, 22, LAD

34) Mookie Betts, 22, BOS

35) Nelson Cruz, 34, SEA

It’s hard to know what we will get from Castillo. There’s really just no sample size to work with.  I think he should be at least a .250 hitter who can hit 10 home runs and steal 20 bags.

Calhoun is a mini Trout. He does a bit of everything besides hit lefties well. With more regular at-bats, I could see Calhoun hitting about .275 with 20 HR and 10 SB.

Pederson destroyed Triple-A pitching last year to the tune of .303/.485/.582 with 33 HR, 106 R, 78 RBI, and 30 SB. He should be the starting center fielder for the Dodgers. Just expect the usual ups and downs from the rookie.

Betts has had success at every level of the minors and had a nice stint in the majors. He should find himself in the outfield since Pedroia is currently blocking him at second base. Power is not his game, but he’ll provide steals while hitting for average.

Cruz is coming off a season in which he hit 40 home runs. He’s generally a great contributor in power numbers. Now for the bad news. He’s moving to the very spacious Safeco field. His value will take a major hit as a result.

Tier 8 – Dynasty / Keeper Outfield Rankings

36) Jayson Werth, 35, WAS

37) Mark Trumbo, 28, ARI

38) Marcell Ozuna, 24, MIA

39) Arismendy Alcantara, 23, CHC

40) Matt Holliday, 34, STL

With the exception of 2012, Werth has been one of the most consistent producers in the game since 2008. However, he is 35 and just had surgery to repair his shoulder. He may have some productive seasons left, but I’m not sure I’d be taking that bet.

Trumbo is capable of 30 home runs a year. Power is scarce in today’s game, and Arizona is a great place to hit bombs. Look for him to rebound in a big way this year.

Ozuna has a similar batted ball distance to Trout. Unlike Trout, he won’t contribute much else. Still, he’s a cheap source of power in an improving lineup.

Alcantara impressed me by hitting 10 home runs and swiping eight bags in limited at-bats last season. What didn’t impress me was the 31 % strikeout rate. A 20-20 season may be in his future, but it’s too early to tell.

Holliday has declined from his heyday. However, over the past three seasons, he’s provided 20 home runs and 90 runs batted in. He’s a solid win-now piece.

Tier 9 – Dynasty / Keeper Outfield Rankings

41) J.D. Martinez, 27, DET

42) Charlie Blackmon, 28, COL

43) Brett Gardner, 31, NYY

44) Oswaldo Arcia,23, MIN

45) Shin-Soo Choo, 32, TEX

Do I buy into the J.D. Martinez breakout? Yes. His power in the Tigers lineup will provide a lot of juicy counting stats. Just don’t expect him to hit for a .300 average like he did last year.

Blackmon had a great year last year. But, when he slumped, he really slumped. With rumors that he may move away from the hitters paradise that is Coors Field, I’m not totally sold on him.

Gardner had a career year in homers when he hit 17. I don’t believe that power is here to stay, but I could easily see a 10 home run, 20 steal season in the works again. He’ll have even more opportunity to score runs now that a move up in the lineup is imminent.

Arcia hit 20 home runs in limited at-bats last year with the Twins. In a full season of at-bats it’s possible he could reach 30. Playing his home games at Target Field does not help his case. Neither does dealing with a tendon issue in his right hand.

Choo probably deserves a higher ranking. He’s a beast in OBP leagues. I just have a hard time buying that he’ll ever steal 20 bags again. I also don’t see the Rangers lineup as a particularly potent place to be at the moment.

Tier 10 – Dynasty / Keeper Outfield Rankings

46) Ben Revere, 26, PHI

47) Denard Span, 30, WAS

48) A.J. Pollock, 27, ARI

49) Leonys Martin, 26, TEX

50) Alex Rios, 33, KC

Revere stole 49 bags last year while hitting .306. In fact, the last three years he’s hit right around .300 while stealing at least 20 bags a year. The Phillies are in the middle of a rebuild, but Revere still has a lot of value despite that.

Span is coming off a huge 2015 season. Too bad I don’t quite believe he’ll keep it up for the next few years. Still, Span will provide your team with someone who can steal 20 bags and score 70 runs a year.

Pollock seemed well on his way to a breakout season before getting injured. Seven home runs and 14 steals in 287 at-bats is no joke. I’d like to see what he could do over a full season before he gets my full endorsement, but I could see him moving up as high as tier seven.

Martin is the poor man’s Revere. He’ll steal you 30 bags but lacks the ability to hit for as high an average. He’s still young enough that he can adapt his game to improve over time.

Rios finds himself leaving Texas, and if you couldn’t tell by now that’s a positive for me. I think he will rebound this year with 10 homers, 15 steals, and hit around .275. If he can do that for another couple of years he’s worth rostering as a third outfielder.

Tier 11 – Dynasty / Keeper Outfield Rankings

51) Dexter Fowler, 28, CHC

52) Lorenzo Cain, 28, KC

53) Khris Davis,27, MIL

54) Adam Eaton,26, CWS

55) Avisail Garcia, 23, CWS

I really like what Fowler can do. The Cubs are a young exciting team. I think if he can stay healthy Fowler can be a big contributor.

Last year, Cain hit .301/.339/.412 with 5 HR, 55 R, 53 RBI, and 28 SB. His luck factor on his BABIP was an insane .380 compared to a career rate of .330. However, regression may not be coming as hard as some people think. Cain has the speed to make up for some of that luck, and he showed signs of progressing as a hitter.

If you look up all or nothing in the dictionary, you’ll see a picture of Davis. He’ll provide some power to your team, just don’t expect anything else. You’ll also have to hope the regression we saw in the second half of last season isn’t here to stay.

I’m a big fan of Eaton. He does all the little things right. Well, maybe besides staying healthy. Last year he hit .300/.362/.401 with 1 HR, 76 R, 36 RBI, and 15 SB line. The White Sox are improved and should drive Eaton in even more. If he can stay healthy, you’re looking at a 90 runs/ 20 steals guy.

Garcia showed both pop and speed in the minors. We’ve yet to see what he can do in a full season in the majors. He has a much better chance at being a 20-20 guy than Eaton does.
 

Tier 12 – Dynasty / Keeper Outfield Rankings

56) Marlon Byrd, 37, PHI

57) Josh Hamilton, 33, LAA

58) Allen Craig, 30, BOS

59) Desmond Jennings, 28, TB

60) Austin Jackson, 27, SEA

Byrd has turned himself into a valuable commodity the past two years. At age 37, I don’t think he has many useful years left. However, hitting in the Reds lineup should boost his runs batted in total. He’s a great win-now piece while you wait for a younger guy to develop.

Oh how the mighty have fallen. In fact, I’ve seen quite a few lists where Hamilton didn’t even make the top 60. That was inconceivable a few years ago. You can take the bet that he’ll return to the player he once was, but it’s a pretty sizable risk.

Before coming to the Red Sox, Craig was a productive player who hit .300 with double digits in home runs. He absolutely tanked after being traded to the Red Sox last year. It’s not apparent where Craig will play if he stays in Boston, but I believe he can turn into a productive player again.

Jennings has been a disappointment to fantasy owners ever since flashing unrealized potential in 2011. There is something to be said for Jennings though. He does a bit of everything except hit for average. That said, the proposition of hoping a player on the Rays turns their career around is a scary one right now.

I really liked Jackson as a Tiger. I feel he loses a lot of his value as a Mariner. His power numbers will be depressed, and his speed isn’t enough to really set him apart.

That’s all for outfielders folks. I know a lot of the rankings are up for debate. Outfielder seems to be one of the areas with the most disagreement.

Look out for our dynasty starting pitcher rankings soon. Until next time RotoBallers…

-Rek

2015 Dynasty / Keeper Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Outfield (Part 1) 2/5/15 (Longer Article/Rankings)

I’m breaking up this dynasty / keeper league rankings article into two parts. It has to be done. To give any sort of depth in the outfield position, you at least have to rank 50-60 outfielders. I ranked 60 in total, and this article will cover the first 30 on my list.

Remember, these are my rankings for dynasty and keeper leagues as we enter into the 2015 MLB and fantasy baseball season. You can also see our consensus outfield rankings for 2015 for non-keeper leagues. Let’s get rolling.

Tier 1 – Dynasty / Keeper Outfield Rankings

1) Mike Trout, 23, LAA

2) Giancarlo Stanton, 25, MIA

3) Andrew McCutchen, 28, PIT

4) Carlos Gomez, 29, MIL

5) Yasiel Puig, 24, LAD

If you don’t know that Trout should be the top overall pick in your dynasty draft then you’re not ready to play dynasty yet. It’s that simple.

If you need potentially the best source of power in the game then Stanton is your guy. He hasn’t failed to hit 20 home runs in any of his major league seasons. In fact, in three of his six seasons he’s hit over 30 home runs. He’s only going to get better, and the lineup around him is improving as well.

McCutchen is a five category contributor similar to Trout. He’s been a picture of consistent production since 2011. Look for more of the same going forward.

I’m sure many of you remember when Gomez was barely even a league average player if that. The light bulb seemed to turn on in 2012. He won’t get you as many runs batted in as the other guys in this tier, but he still has plenty of category juice.

I know Puig disappointed some owners last year. I’m not too concerned. Sure the slumps last year weren’t great, but I love that Puig has cut down on his strikeout rate and improved his walk rate. A more patient Puig is a hitter the league should fear and someone you should want in your fantasy lineups.

Tier 2 – Dynasty / Keeper Outfield Rankings

6) Adam Jones, 29, BAL

7) Bryce Harper, 22, WAS

8) Justin Upton, 27, SD

9) Jose Bautista, 34, TOR

10) George Springer, 25, HOU

Jones is a guy who will hit .280, 20 home runs, score 75 times, drive in 80 runs, and usually steal 10 bags every year. The only time he’s failed to reach those numbers in the past four years is in 2011 and 2014. In 2011 he scored only 68 runs, and in 2014 he stole only 7 bags. I think we can find it in our hearts to forgive him.

I’ll be the first to admit I’m not a huge fan of Harper. In his young career he’s had a lot of trouble staying healthy. When he is on the field, the numbers he puts up suggest maybe he can live up to his hype.

Upton is a great source of power. The dimensions of Petco Park do worry me a bit, but I still think he’ll be capable of hitting 20 home runs a year. His strikeout rate is gruesome, but at least he does know how to take a walk. The Padres also have a much improved lineup that should help Upton’s counting stats.

Bautista is a bit on the older side and has dealt with a few injuries in recent years. That wouldn’t stop me from drafting him high. A guy who is capable of giving you 30 home runs, 100 runs scored, and 100 runs batted in on a yearly basis doesn’t come around often.

Between two levels of the minors in 2013 Springer hit 37 HR, scored 106 runs, drove in 108 runs, and stole 45 bases. Springer followed that up by mashing 20 home runs in limited at-bats in the majors last year. The power is definitely there. I believe the speed will come as he gets more comfortable. I am worried about his incredibly high strikeout rate, but he’s worth the risk.

Tier 3 – Dynasty / Keeper Outfield Rankings

11) Carlos Gonzalez, 29, COL

12) Michael Brantley, 27, CLE

13) Starling Marte, 26, PIT

14) Jacoby Ellsbury, 31, NYY

15) Hunter Pence, 31, SF

The reason for Gonzalez being so low is simple. He’s Mr. Injury Prone. If he’s on the field, he is an amazing talent who is capable of 20-20 seasons. That’s too big of an if for me.

I love Brantley. I know there are those who are saying major regression is coming his way, and I don’t disagree that some regression is coming. He was simply too lucky last year. Everything broke his way. Still, he’s capable of double digits in home runs and steals while hitting for average. There’s a lot to like.

Starling Marte is under appreciated in fantasy circles. He slashed .291/.356/.453 with 13 HR, 73 R, 56 RBI, and 30 steals last season. That’s become the norm for him the past two years. Sure he won’t contribute much in the runs batted in department, but four category contributors are still worth your time.

Ellsbury had a solid first year as a Yankee. Assuming he can stay healthy I expect his numbers to be even better this year. Just draft him knowing that his speed may not age well, and his injuries may catch up to him in a few years.

I’ve had Pence on almost every single one of my fantasy teams. He’s nothing if not consistent. The negatives are that he has less speed than Ellsbury, and his speed may not age well.

 

Tier 4 – Dynasty / Keeper Outfield Rankings

16) Corey Dickerson, 25, COL

17) Billy Hamilton, 24, CIN

18) Gregory Polanco, 23, PIT

19) Matt Kemp, 30, SD

20) Ryan Braun, 31, MIL

Talk about making the most of your opportunities. With Cargo going down for a large part of the season last year, Dickerson seized his opportunity to show he was a budding star for the Rockies. In limited at-bats he slashed .312/.364/.567 with 24 HR, 74 R, 76 RBI, and 8 SB. Over the course of a full season I believe we could see healthy Cargo numbers from Mr. Dickerson.

Hamilton stole 88 total bases in 2013 between the minors and the majors. He didn’t miss a beat in his first full season swiping 56 bags in the process. As he continues to make adjustments he could be a player who steals 65 bags a year while hitting about .250-260.

Last year I was the first to jump on the Polanco bandwagon in my league. He rewarded me with the typical ups and downs of a rookie season. I’m still a believer. This is an eventual 20-20 player who will hit for a high average yearly.

Gone are the days when Kemp will hit 20 home runs and steal 30-40 bags for your fantasy team. In fact, it’s reasonable to be worried about Kemp’s power numbers now that he’ll play his home games at Petco. However, last year he had a huge surge in his batted ball distance. Kemp is still a reliable option. Maybe the move to a new team will rejuvenate him.

How you feel about Braun depends largely on how you feel he will recover from his hand surgery. I’m choosing to believe he’s recovered. He’s capable of hitting around .275 while popping 20 homers, driving in 80 runs, and stealing 10 bags.

 

Tier 5 – Dynasty / Keeper Outfield Rankings

 21) Yoenis Cespedes, 29, DET

22) Christian Yelich, 23, MIA

23) Jason Heyward, 25, STL

24) Jay Bruce, 27, CIN

25) Byron Buxton, 21, MIN

The 2012 season is a dream for Cespedes owners. Simply put, he’s just not that kind of player. His 2014 slash line of .260/.301/.450 with 22 HR, 89 R, 100 RBI, and 7 SB reflects his actual talent. I like him in the Tigers lineup, but who knows where he’ll end up after that.

Christian Yelich is another underrated player. I believe a 15-20 home run season is in his future. I’m aware he has yet to hit double digits homers in the majors. As he develops, I believe he could add some power. Hitting in front of Giancarlo Stanton also means you’re going to score a ton of runs per year.

Heyward’s power numbers have been dropping the past few years. In fact, last year he had a career low .113 ISO. He’s young enough that the power numbers may rebound for him. The move to the Cardinalsshould help him out, and he’s a good buy low candidate.

Bruce has shown a worrying trend of continuing a spike in his strikeout rate since 2010. That said, this is a player who in three of his past four seasons provided fantasy teams with 30 home runs, 80runs scored, and 95 runs batted in. It’s reasonable to think that last year was Bruce’s floor, and he should bounce back in a major way.

Buxton is considered a can’t-miss prospect for the Twins. His numbers in the minors in the past year don’t look great, but he did suffer a concussion shortly after being promoted to Double-A. Keep an eye on how Buxton performs this year in the minors. If he does well, he’s easily worth a development stash.

 

Tier 6 – Dynasty / Keeper Outfield Rankings

26) Jorge Soler, 22, CHC

27) Hanley Ramirez, 31, BOS

28) Alex Gordon, 30, KC

29) Wil Myers, 24, SD

30) Melky Cabrera, 30, CHW

I expect to get a lot of flack for this Soler ranking. In fact, I could easily see where I’m too low on him. Hitting five homers in 97 at-bats is impressive, but it’s such a limited sample size that I’m not willing to dub him the future just yet.  However, his upside is projected as a .285 hitter with 25 home runs a year. If he can reach that potential, he’ll quickly move up my ranks.

Ramirez should benefit from the move to Fenway. He should also benefit from not playing one of the most physically taxing positions anymore. However, the outfield pool is so deep that I’m not very high on him.

Gordon may not be a sexy choice, but he’s capable of double digits in both home runs and steals. He also has been consistently healthy the past four years. Guys like this are just as necessary to the success of your team as the exciting young prospects.

Myers is only a few years removed from being considered one of the top prospects in the game. We’ve yet to see a full season from Myers so I’m not ready to write him off as a total bust. I especially like Myers if he ends up moving away from Petco.

One of my best moves last season was drafting Cabrera to be my third outfielder. Cabrera provides a little bit of everything while hitting for a fairly high average. With the move to the White Sox, Cabrera will most likely find himself hitting in front of Jose Abreu leading to more run scoring opportunities.

That’s it for the top 30 outfielders. To feel comfortable with my team going forward I’d want to make sure I owned at least two of the players listed here. Look for part two of my outfield rankings coming soon.

Until next time RotoBallers,

Rek

2015 Dynasty / Keeper Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Second Base 1/30/15 (Longer Article/Rankings)

Second base is one of the more interesting positions to me personally. It’s not the deepest in terms of known commodities, but there are a lot of young guys who could make an immediate impact. The trouble was ranking those who haven’t seen any major league action. Below are the results.
 

Tier 1 – Dynasty Second Base Rankings

1) Jose Altuve, 24, HOU

2) Robinson Cano, 32, SEA

3) Anthony Rendon, 24, WAS

4) Jason Kipnis, 27, CLE

5) Brian Dozier, 27, MIN

Everyone who follows me on twitter knows how much I love Altuve. I got him as a steal in my draft last year, and he rewarded me with a career year. I don’t think we will see a repeat of 2014. But we can definitely expect 30 or more steals a year with a few home runs while hitting .300. I’m also excited by what the Astros are doing as an organization. I see Altuve as a mainstay at second base for a long time.

Good luck finding a better source of power at second than Cano. Sure he’s getting older, but he still has at least a few more years of elite production ahead. He’s also only a year or two removed from being easily the best option at the position.

I actually like Rendon the best of this group. He is a five category contributor who has age on his side. So why is he ranked third? I’m worried about his long term position eligibility at second base because he’s now playing third base. If he shifts back to second he is arguably the guy you want to own.

Kipnis was a huge disappointment last year so I understand if you avoid him out of bitterness. However, he was dealing with an oblique injury all year. Don’t be surprised to see Kipnis bounce back and have a 20/20 season in the next few years.

It was a tale of two halves with Dozier last season. In the first half, he hit .242/.340/.436 with 18 HR, 69 R, 45 RBI, and 16 SB. He was a revelation in the first half, but his power seemed to dip drastically in the second half . His slugging percentage dropped to .387, and he only hit five HR. His average won’t help you, but if you play in an OBP league, you have to like his walk rate. Any player coming off a 20/20 season has to be taken seriously going forward, and Dozier fits the bill.
 

Tier 2 – Dynasty Second Base Rankings

6) Javier Baez,22, CHC

7) Kolten Wong, 24, STL

8) Dustin Pedroia, 31, BOS

9) Ian Kinsler, 32, DET

10) Daniel Murphy, 29, NYM

We all know at this point what Baez did throughout the minor leagues. We also know what he did in his brief major league stint last season. Nine home runs in 229 at-bats is no joke. He also has the speed. This all sounds like a guy that belongs in the top tier except for one simple fact: he strikes out too much. Way too much. In the past three years between the minors and the majors, he struck out 28%, 30%, and 41.5% of the time. If he can get the strikeouts under control he will easily rank among the top at the position, but that’s a big “if.”

Wong had a pretty good first season in the majors, slashing .249/.292/.388 with 12 HR, 52 R, 42 RBI, and 20 SB in 433 at-bats. Admittedly, I’m pretty high on Wong, but that’s because I believe he was pressing last year. He never struck out much in the minors, so I expect to see a drastic drop in his 16% strikeout rate. In time, Wong should develop into a better hitter, and he has the ability to contribute in a few categories.

Let’s not kid ourselves. Pedroia is not the mainstay he once was at second base. The past few years have seen his power drastically dip. Last year saw a career low over a full season in steals. He’s been dealing with a ton of wrist and hand injuries too. Yet, he is still capable of putting up double digits in both home runs and steals. His batting average and on base percentage are still very high. The combination makes Pedoria a fill-in for a few years while you wait for one of the younger prospects to bloom.

Some of you may think I have Kinsler ranked low. I’d reply that I’m tempted to rank him even lower. Sure .275/.307/.420 with 17 HR, 100 R, 92 RBI, and 15 SB is an amazing season. Most of that production came in the first half of the year. In the second half, Kinsler hit .239/.270/.357 with 6 HR, 36 R, 41 RBI, and 5 SB. I like Kinsler, especially in the Tigers potent lineup. I also just wouldn’t be surprised to see him decline pretty quickly.

Murphy has been one of the most consistent performers at second base for the past three years. He’s also one of the most under-appreciated players at the position. He’s worthy of this spot if you believe he can continue to hit for average while providing some speed and pop. Clearly, I’m a believer.
 

Tier 3 – Dynasty Second Base Rankings

11) Neil Walker, 29, PIT

12) Dee Gordon, 26, MIA

13) Rougned Odor, 20, TEX

14) Jedd Gyorko, 26, SD

15) Howie Kendrick, 31, LAD

Walker is a great option if you’re trying to get power from your second baseman. Just realize that he won’t give you much of anything in the way of speed, and the middle infield positions are usually the best place to look for steals. Still, if you are a smart owner who can build around Walker, he will be a very useful piece for years to come.

I owe Gordon my apologies. I was down on him all of last season. I thought there was no way he could keep it up. He shut me up by stealing 64 bags and scoring 92 runs. He is the definition of speed at second base. The only reason I have him in this tier instead of higher is I don’t expect the average to remain a positive.

Odor flashed a ton of speed in the minor leagues with some pop to go along with it. He’s only 20 years old, and it’s apparent to most that the Rangers rushed him to the majors. Don’t expect 2015 to be a special year for him. As soon as 2016, I could see him hitting over 10 home runs while stealing 20 bags.

Gyorko is the poor man’s Walker. He’ll provide you with some power but not much of anything else. Last season, he was dealing with a foot injury which can explain the down year. If he can improve his plate discipline, he could be a good source of power at a position that lacks power hitters.

I expect Kendrick to have a few more good years ahead of him hitting in the Dodgers lineup. The alarming stat to me is his huge drop in power in recent seasons. He’s still capable of stealing a few bags, hitting a few homers, and hitting for average, but he’s on the wrong side of 30. He’s an option until one of the prospects shows themselves to be ready to take over your starting role.
 

Tier 4 – Dynasty Second Base Rankings

16) Ben Zobrist, 33, OAK

17) Asdrubal Cabrera, 29, FA

18) Scooter Gennett, 24, MIL

19) Chase Utley, 36, PHI

20) Jose Peraza, 20, ATL

Is Zobrist declining? Absolutely. Is he older? Of course. Is he still one of the only members on this list to hit 10 home runs and steal 10 bags the past five seasons? Yup. He’s more of a guy to hold you over until a younger asset arrives for your team, but he can help you win now.

Let me start by saying I’m not a Cabrera fan. His strikeout rate and fly ball percentage have climbed in recent seasons while his power has dipped. This seems like a textbook case of a guy trying to hit too many home runs and hurting his other counting stats in the process. That said, he is only 29 and just a few years removed from a 25 home run, 17 steal season. His value is probably hurt by signing with the Rays.

I may be too high on Gennett, but his manager seems to agree with me that he’s developing into a very useful player. With Ron Roenicke recently stating that Gennett will get a chance to be the everyday second baseman, I’m very optimistic about this upcoming year. Gennett won’t hit 15 home runs, but he is certainly capable of popping about 10 big flies. He’s also capable of stealing 10 bags and hitting around .280. As a young guy with the faith of his manager, look for Gennett to develop into a reliable option at second.

I have all the respect in the world for Utley. In the past decade he has been one of the best second basemen in the game. However, at age 36, he is no spring chicken. He should be able to provide your team with another year or two of good production, but make sure you have a plan for his eventual retirement.

Peraza would be ranked much higher if he had seen any action at Triple-A. Regardless, he stole 64 bags in Single-A in 2013 and swipped 60 across two levels of the minors last year. He has an outside chance to make the opening day roster for the Braves. More likely than not he’ll begin the year at Triple-A. Keep an eye on him, as he has the natural ability to be a better version of Dee Gordon.
 

Tier 5 – Dynasty Second Base Rankings

21) Brandon Phillips, 33, CIN

22) Devon Travis, 23, TOR

23) Jurickson Profar,21, TEX

24) Joe Panik, 24, SF

25) Robert Refsnyder, 23, NYY

Phillips is only a year removed from consistently hitting 18 home runs four years in a row. The loss of power could be attributed to his thumb injury, but it could also just be part of aging. If you think Phillips can rebound in the power department, he’s a solid win now piece. Just be prepared with a backup plan due to his age.

Speaking of a good backup plan, I love Travis. The Blue Jays are leaning towards having him begin the year at Triple-A which makes sense, but all he has done is hit at every level he’s seen in the minors. Based on his minor league stats, I see a trend developing of a patient batter who features both power and speed. Unless Ryan Goins magically transforms himself as a hitter, expect to see Travis in the majors soon.

Panik hit .305 in his first taste of the majors with the Giants last year. I imagine the starting job is his for this upcoming season. The only reason he’s ranked so low is he doesn’t have a history of doing much else with his bat. He has shown some speed in the minors. If he can translate his base running to big league success, he’ll find himself moving up these ranks.

Profar missed all of last season after tearing his shoulder in spring training last year. He was quickly supplanted from Odor. However, it was Profar and not Odor who was considered the number one prospect in the game entering 2013. At 21 years old there is a lot to suggest we haven’t seen the best of Profar yet.

Refsnyder was the leading candidate for the starting job in 2015 before the Yankees signed Stephen Drew.The Yankees seem to want Resynder to get more seasoning in the minors before he gets to the show. When Refsnyder arrives on the scene he profiles to be a similar player to Panik with a bit more power.

Tier 6 – Dynasty Second Base Rankings

26) Josh Rutledge, 25, LAA

27) Alex Guerrero, 28, LAD

28) Micah Johnson, 24, CWS

29) Jonathan Schoop, 23, BAL

30) Omar Infante, 33, KC

31) Nick Franklin, 23, TB

I thought I’d be higher on Rutledge now that he has what should be a starting job with the Angels. It’s hard to feel good about a player moving away from Coors Field though. I’d also like to see him cut down on the strikeout rate from last year. Hitting in the same lineup as the likes of Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton, and Albert Pujols should help his counting stats.

Guerrero destroyed Triple-A pitching last year despite having part of his ear bitten off Mike Tyson style by Miguel Olivio. I was among those convinced that Guerrero would take the starting job at some point from Dee Gordon last season, but due to Gordon’s play, it just never happened. After the Dodgers traded Gordon, I thought it might be Guerrero’s big chance. The Dodgers then went out and acquired Howie Kendrick. What I’m trying to say is I like what Guerrero has shown in the minors, but he doesn’t have a clear path to playing time. Even if he gets playing time it may be at another position.

The White Sox have some young options at second base, but I like Johnson the best. This is a guy who stole 87 total bags in 2013. He also stole 22 last season. It’s fair to say he has some speed, and he makes good contact with the ball. Just don’t expect power from him.

Schoop showed the ability to hit for power last year. He also has continually been ranked among theOrioles top prospects. So far, all he has been able to provide is power and little else. He is still young, so he has time to develop. He really needs to work on making better contact with the ball.

Infante is the elder statesman of this group. He’s only a year removed from hitting 10 home runs with a .318 average, but he is over 30. He dealt with shoulder issues which could explain his lack of power last season, but it’s more likely the decline of skills that comes with age. He’s not a terrible candidate as a fill-in for the next year or two, but I honestly think you’d be better off drafting a younger guy.

Franklin has youth on his side but I haven’t been overly impressed with what I’ve seen from him the past year.However, at-bats should now be available for Franklin after Zobrist was traded to the Athletics. He could turn into a young Zobrist if things break right, but he has a lot to prove.

That’s all for now. As always I reserve the right to change these ranks in the future. At this point in the off-season, I don’t foresee changes any time soon.

Until next time RotoBallers,

Rek

2015 Dynasty / Keeper Fantasy Baseball Rankings: First Base 1/25/15 (Longer Article/Rankings)

Dynasty Rankings at First Base

Over the past few weeks, we have gone through our dynasty fantasy baseball rankings forcatcher, third base, and shortstop. Today we bring you the top dynasty / keeper league first basemen.

First Base is one of the deepest positions in fantasy baseball.  There is an abundance of power to draft at first in the early, middle and late rounds of a dynasty draft. Also, since the majority of the game’s top rated first base prospects are largely at Single-A or Double-A, most of the mashers you’ll want to keep in mind for your draft are currently in the majors. With that in mind here are RotoBaller’s first base tiers for dynasty leagues.

Tier 1 Dynasty First Basemen

1) Paul Goldschmidt, 27, ARI

2) Anthony Rizzo, 25, CHC

3) Jose Abreu,27, CHW

4) Miguel Cabrera, 31, DET

5) Edwin Encarnacion, 31, TOR

Goldschmidt is one of the top offensive players in the game, not just at first base. I’m not the least bit worried about his broken hand, which should be fully recovered in advance of spring training. He’s going to dominate the league for many more years to come.

The next four were all ridiculously hard to rank. You can make a case for any combination of the four. I settled on Rizzo being second due to age and my belief that he still has room to grow. There’s not much to say about these hitters. They are the cream of the crop at first base in redraft or dynasty leagues.

Tier 2 Dynasty First Basemen

6) Freddie Freeman, 25, ATL

7) Victor Martinez, 35, DET

8) Joey Votto, 31, CIN

9) Adrian Gonzalez, 32, LAD

10) Albert Pujols, 34, LAA

Freeman is just outside of the top tier because he lacks the pure power of the others listed there. If he ever develops the ability to hit 30 or more home runs a year, he would make the jump to the first tier.

It seems weird to rank Martinez so high after I just ranked Cabrera in the first tier, but they both belong in the top ten. They should both get enough playing time to retain their first base eligibility, and both are elite hitters. Martinez’s advanced age doesn’t bother me for the next few years because first base is one of the least taxing positions in the game.

Maybe it’s just my OBP league bias talking, but I love Votto. I know last year was not the most encouraging season, but I could easily see a return to a 20 home run season with an OBP over .400. If that happens, his owners should feel secure at first base for years to come.

Gonzalez has only failed to reach the 100 RBI plateau in one of his past eight seasons. In the season where he missed driving in 100 RBI, he had 99. He’s really consistent, and the Dodgers keep surrounding him with a potent lineup.

Pujols was once the man to own at first base. While that’s no longer the case, it says something that even in his decline I have him ranked in the second tier. Last season saw a return to form after a down year in 2013, and I believe Pujols can give us similar numbers for another few years.

Tier 3 Dynasty First Basemen

11) Carlos Santana, 28, CLE

12) Prince Fielder, 30, TEX

13) Brandon Belt, 26, SF

14) Ryan Zimmerman, 30, WAS

15) Matt Adams, 26, STL

This might be a case of being biased towards OBP leagues again, but Carlos Santana is still young enough where he can put up a handful of solid years at 1B. Obviously he was an amazing offensive catcher, but he was only a so-so first baseman last season. He’s still young and has time to develop, but he does have competition for playing time from Brandon Moss. Regardless, both should get enough games at first base to remain eligible.

The only reason Fielder isn’t in the second tier is the neck injury he suffered last year. There isn’t any history to indicate how Fielder might perform after having his neck fused back together. I am on the cautiously optimistic side, but he is over 30, and we saw his power and groundball % moving in the wrong directions in previous years. I will feel more comfortable ranking him after seeing how he performs this year. If you’re a risk taker, he could be a nice discounted draft pick.

Belt is a developing hitter who hit 12 home runs last year despite only receiving 235 at-bats. Just imagine what he could do in a full season. He does come with some red flags though, as his high strikeout rate will limit his batting average, and AT&T park will limit his power upside.

Zimmerman should benefit from shifting across the diamond to first base. A healthy Zimmerman at first should be able to provide more than 20 home runs while still hitting for average. As Jeff K pointed out in RotoBaller’s composite 3B rankings, Zimmerman’s seasonal averages make more attractive than our general opinion of him allows.

We were all very high on Adams when he first came onto the scene. At best, he could put up very similar numbers to Zimmerman over the course of 2015.  At worst, he continues to struggle and get benched vs. LHP which limits his upside.  His average fly ball distance dropped this year and his line drive percentage went up at the expense of fly balls. He’s too young to be experiencing a decline in power, but his 2013 performance may led us to project his power to be more than it is.

Tier 4 Dynasty First Basemen

16) Chris Davis, 28, BAL

17) Lucas Duda, 28, NYM

18) Mike Napoli, 33, BOS

19) Brandon Moss, 31, CLE

20) Eric Hosmer, 25, KC

You know a position is deep when Chris Davis – who hit 53 home runs in 2013 – is listed at number 16. Davis has north of a 30 percent strikeout rate over his career. Unless he cuts down on the whiff rate, the power numbers aren’t going to make up for it. Still, he is easily the most desirable of this tier with the highest upside.

Duda rewarded the faith the Mets showed in him when they traded Ike Davis by hitting 30 HR in the 2014 season. The power is legitimate. Just don’t expect much else from Duda who is a career .248 hitter.

Napoli is a converted catcher like Santana. Unlike Santana, Napoli no longer really has time on his side. He’s capable of some decent power numbers over the next couple years, but his age and past health issues hurt his ranking.

The move of Moss to the Indians benefits him in my opinion. I know the Indians aren’t the best offensive team, but Progressive ballpark is a much more hitter friendly park, and Moss should find himself in fewer platoons. He will probably share first base duties with Carlos Santana, but there are enough at-bats to go around for both to do some damage.

I want to flat out give up on Hosmer, but I’ll allow myself to be slightly influenced by his postseason. Or maybe it’s the fact that he’s one of the few first basemen who can eclipse 15 home runs and 10 steals. He still hasn’t hit his prime, and if he can trade some groundballs for fly balls we could see a small breakout. Maybe the Royals signing Kendrys Morales will light a fire under him. Either way, with his age and upside, I can’t bring myself to rank Hosmer any lower.

Tier 5 Dynasty First Basemen

21) Justin Morneau, 33, COL

22) C.J. Cron, 24, LAA

23) Pedro Alvarez, 27, PIT

24) Jon Singleton, 23, HOU

25) Adam LaRoche, 35, CHW

Morneau can still hit for power and average as shown by his resurgence last year. It doesn’t hurt that he plays the majority of his games at Coors Field either. If you do draft him, be aware that his value is closely tied to starting in Colorado.

Cron had 11 home runs in very limited at-bats last year. The only issue for Cron is being blocked by Pujols at first. The Angels either need to find him a way to get more at-bats or trade him away.

Alvarez may have lost his third base job to Josh Harrison, but that’s not because of his bat. Alvarez put up back-to-back seasons of at least 30 home runs in 2012 and 2013. If he’s healthy this year, he should come close to repeating the power display. The average and OBP may end up hurting you, but he’s a great source of power if you need it.

As I’ve mentioned in previous dynasty articles, the Astros are an exciting young team. If Singleton can cut down on his strikeout rate and increase his power numbers: look out. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s only 23.

Robin Ventura says he sees LaRoche playing two games a week at first. That’s enough to remain eligible in 2016, but it could lead to eligibility concerns in future seasons. There’s also his age to consider, although he should be in the league at least a few more years. If you’re not overly concerned, LaRoche seems to always hit at least 20 home runs with 80 RBI, a solid BA and even better OBP.

Tier 6 Dynasty First Basemen

26) Kennys Vargas, 24, MIN

27) Michael Morse, 32, MIA

28) Chris Carter, 28, HOU

29) Billy Butler, 28, OAK

30) Joe Mauer, 31, MIN

Vargas is the man the Twins will turn to at first when they realize they need more power out of the position. It’ll be hard for them to do since they have team icon Mauer locked up until 2018, but they need to figure out a way. I’m not sure I have a ton of faith in Vargas, but I’d like to see what he can do with more at-bats. He’s easily the biggest potential mover in this tier.

Morse had an up and down season in 2014, but the overall stat line looked good. I’m somewhat concerned because he only had two home runs after the All-Star break. Despite that, I think he has a few more good years of providing your team some power and a decent batting average to go with it.

Last year Carter finished the season tied for second in home runs in the league. So why is he so low on my list? Simply put, he strikes out too much. There’s also a good chance he ends up losing at-bats to Jon Singleton or Matt Dominguez if he struggles. Still, a guy who can hit 35 home runs in a single season is worth a shot later in the draft if you can tolerate the strikeouts.

Billy Beane’s talent evaluation is usually pretty good. I trust that Butler will be a productive player for the Athletics. However, Butler hasn’t flashed anything to indicate that he is more than a serviceable first baseman.

Once the cream of the catching crop, Mauer is now someone you barely want to own as a first baseman. His only real value comes in the on base department. Even then, he’s a drag on the other categories.

Tier 7 Dynasty First Basemen

31) Mark Teixeria, 34, NYY

 32) Logan Morrison, 27, SEA

33) Yonder Alonso, 27, SD

34) Kendrys Morales, 31, KC

35) James Loney, 30, TB

Teixeria is almost the opposite of Mauer. He’s still capable of providing 20 home runs if he can stay healthy, but I believe his days of hitting for average are behind him. Still, in a power starved game, he’s not a terrible play.

I remember when everyone thought Alonso would be the next big thing at first base along with Rizzo. Things didn’t really turn out that way. Morrison has shown a lot of pop in the minors. We need to see what he can do in a full season of at-bats.

You’re taking a chance on the upside of youth with Morrison and Alonso.With Morales and Loney, you already know what you’re getting. Towards the end of a draft that’s not always a bad thing.

Until next time Rotoballers…